Electricity consumption analysis using spline regression models: The case of a Turkish province

Energy is one of the indispensible elements of human life and electrical energy is adopted as the most frequently used energy type. As this type of energy can not be stored at the present time, it has to be instantly consumed. In other words, the demand of the consumers has to be compensated, immediately. This paper employs to model the electrical consumption of Erzurum province in 2011 by spline regression and to decide whether a statistically seasonal variation exists for this consumption. The one-year data set of the investigation was obtained from Turkish Electricity Transmission Company Provincial Directorate of Erzurum and was analyzed by the agency of continuous partial polynomial spline regressions. This analysis determined three knots and fits linear, quadratic and cubic spline regression models.